Leo Saenger

Political Economy
History
Development

About

I am a Ph.D. student in Business Economics at Harvard University and Harvard Business School.

Previously, I worked as a investment analyst at Bracebridge Capital, where I focused on commercial real estate and CMBX. Before that, I attended Harvard College, where I graduated magna cum laude with a degree in Applied Mathematics with a focus on Economics.

I am interested in the intersections between political economy, history, and development economics.

Currently, I'm working on the evolution and persistence of gerontocracy and early state formation in Southeast Asia.

I occasionally publish blog posts on topics ranging from the political economy of housing, where to eat in Tokyo, GLP-1s, bank regulation, and predicting (and getting wrong) inflation expectations.

You can read the blog here.

about me

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Research

Current

Gerontocracy

Recipient of Capitan Jonathan Fay Prize and Hoopes Prize for Best Thesis at Harvard College, 2023. Harvard College Research Program (HCRP) grant recipient, 2022.

Respect for elders is a central pillar of many social structures, where norms range from gerontocracy (rule by elders) and filial piety to geronticide. Despite their importance, these beliefs are not well understood. What causes variation in attitudes toward elders, and what consequences do these norms have today? To answer this question, I first describe the historical and contemporary distribution of gerontocracy and attitudes toward elders across societies. To understand historical norms, I create a measure of ancestral attitudes based on 1,200 folklore motifs spanning 558 different cultures. Next, I turn to the origins of elder norms. Using historical environmental data on climatic stability and subsistence complexity, I show the importance of elders in society is increasing in both the likelihood their advice remains relevant in future generations and the implicit cost of ignoring advice and ``reinventing the wheel''. I finally examine present-day consequences of this variation. I find historical support for elders explains both cross- and within-country treatment of elders today, as reflected in old-age mortality and implicit bias tests. I finally test the influence of historical gerontocracy at the polling both, using data on the age of elected leaders within countries. I find historical positive norms toward elders predict increased average ages of elected leaders as well as more fragile democracies.

Past

Trade Agreements and Protectionism's Shadow: Evidence from Japan (with Makioka Ryo), RIETI Discussion Paper Series (draft), Presentations @ FRB International Finance, Japan Society of International Economics (english slides).

Grants: Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies (Summer Research Grant), Harvard University Asia Center (Winter Research Grant)

Unmasking Tourism in Venice: How tourism dynamics unfold within the built environment (MIT Civic Data Design Lab), website, press in URBANET (a publication of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development)

Grant: Harvard Center for European Studies (Thesis Grant)